August 2022

Rising Payments May Pressure Consumer Debt Burden and Delinquencies

This publication is a part of:

Collection: On Point

Abstract

Soaring home and consumer prices have raised concerns that consumer debt burdens are increasing and could result in rising delinquencies. Analysis of the OCC's Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) indicates payments declined during the economic upheaval of the pandemic driven by declining student loan payments resulting from forbearance under the CARES Act. Recent auto and home price escalation are reversing that trend with payments now rising. The combination of increasing scheduled payments, the end of stimulus and slow real income growth is putting upward pressure on consumers' debt burden. As scheduled payment rates increase due to inflation and rising interest rates, consumer credit scores are expected to deteriorate and delinquencies to rise.

Author:

Michel Becnel